Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Paul Craig
Andre Muniz
31%
69%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 2"
78"
36
Age
Δ 2y
33
17-11-1
Career record
Δ 14 pp
24-9
L2
Current streak
L1
15
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Craig: 40 sig / 2 TD ·
Muniz: 24 sig / 2 TD
Paul Craig
Andre Muniz
21
Sig strikes landed
25
42
Sig strikes attempted
54
27
Total strikes landed
42
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.6
2.4
Takedowns attempted
3.2
0.00
Knockdowns
0.20
109s
Control time
200s
Method
Decision
33%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
34%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Paul Craig
"Bearjew"
17-11-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
15 fights · 8-6
Last 5
L
UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. As…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Asp…
—
W
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2
—
W
UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez
—
Blue corner
L1
Andre Muniz
"Sergipano"
24-9
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
78"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database
6 fights · 5-1
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Muniz vs. Allen
—
W
UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier
—
W
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier
—
W
UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Sa…
—