Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Jai Herbert
Fares Ziam
34%
66%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 2"
75"
35
Age
Δ 9y
26
14-6-2
Career record
Δ 19 pp
19-4
D1
Current streak
W1
6
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Herbert: 49 sig / 0 TD ·
Ziam: 61 sig / 1 TD
Jai Herbert
Fares Ziam
25
Sig strikes landed
33
68
Sig strikes attempted
63
43
Total strikes landed
53
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.3
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
126s
Control time
124s
Method
Decision
68%
KO/TKO
19%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
D1
Jai Herbert
"Black Country Banger"
14-6-2
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
6 fights · 2-3
Last 5
D
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. As…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Asp…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vett…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov
—
Blue corner
W1
Fares Ziam
"The Smile Killer"
19-4
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Tuiva…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. …
—
W
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. The…
—
L
UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier
—