Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Nathaniel Wood
Andre Fili
75%
25%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 5"
74"
30
Age
Δ 3y
33
24-6
Career record
Δ 13 pp
26-13
W2
Current streak
W1
8
UFC fights in our DB
19
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Wood: 84 sig / 1 TD ·
Fili: 58 sig / 0 TD
Nathaniel Wood
Andre Fili
64
Sig strikes landed
60
117
Sig strikes attempted
149
88
Total strikes landed
75
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.9
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
149s
Control time
97s
Method
Decision
68%
KO/TKO
23%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Nathaniel Wood
"The Last Kingsman"
24-6
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
8 fights · 6-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Tuiva…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. As…
—
L
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. B…
—
Blue corner
W1
Andre Fili
"Touchy"
26-13
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
19 fights · 10-8
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Silva
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Eye vs. Calvil…
—
L
UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy
—