Back to UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura
Main Women's Flyweight

Molly McCann vs Julija Stoliarenko

UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura ·The O2 Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Molly McCann
Julija Stoliarenko
65% 35%
Why
62"
Reach
Δ 4"
66"
33
Age
Δ 3y
30
14-9
Career record
Δ 15 pp
11-11-2
L1
Current streak
L1
10
UFC fights in our DB
6

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
McCann: 6 sig / 0 TD · Stoliarenko: 9 sig / 1 TD
Molly McCann
Julija Stoliarenko
57
Sig strikes landed
47
108
Sig strikes attempted
119
80
Total strikes landed
65
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.7
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.20
Knockdowns
-0.10
143s
Control time
109s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
21%
Submission
29%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Molly McCann

"Meatball"
14-9
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
62"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database 10 fights · 6-4
Last 5
L UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira
—
W UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. As…
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W UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Asp…
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W UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ti…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Vo…
—
Blue corner
L1

Julija Stoliarenko

11-11-2
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database 6 fights · 1-5
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan
—
W UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier
—
L UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov
—
L UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Olei…
—