Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Davey Grant
Daniel Marcos
28%
72%
Why
69"
Reach
69"
38
Age
Δ 7y
30
19-8
Career record
Δ 25 pp
19-1
W2
Current streak
W1
11
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Grant: 70 sig / 0 TD ·
Marcos: 48 sig / 1 TD
Davey Grant
Daniel Marcos
56
Sig strikes landed
66
129
Sig strikes attempted
134
59
Total strikes landed
78
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.0
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.00
Knockdowns
0.40
53s
Control time
106s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Davey Grant
"Dangerous"
19-8
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
11 fights · 6-5
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalis…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Tate
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Jung vs. Ige
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Mu…
—
Blue corner
W1
Daniel Marcos
"Soncora"
19-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill
—