Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Lerone Murphy
Josh Culibao
77%
23%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 0"
73"
32
Age
Δ 3y
29
18-1-1
Career record
Δ 19 pp
12-4-1
W4
Current streak
W3
5
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Murphy: 59 sig / 3 TD ·
Culibao: 23 sig / 0 TD
Lerone Murphy
Josh Culibao
40
Sig strikes landed
29
89
Sig strikes attempted
70
54
Total strikes landed
32
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.0
2.9
Takedowns attempted
0.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
169s
Control time
15s
Method
Decision
47%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Lerone Murphy
"The Miracle"
18-1-1
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
5 fights · 4-0
Last 5
W
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3
—
W
UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Mag…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Ige
—
D
UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier
—
Blue corner
W3
Josh Culibao
"Kuya"
12-4-1
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
5 fights · 3-1
Last 5
W
UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanov…
—
W
UFC 275: Teixeira vs. Prochazka
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbr…
—
D
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Aldana
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Hoo…
—