Prelims1
Lightweight
Marc Diakiese vs Joel Alvarez
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura
·The O2 Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Marc Diakiese
Joel Alvarez
34%
66%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 4"
77"
30
Age
Δ 0y
30
17-8
Career record
Δ 14 pp
23-5
L1
Current streak
L1
13
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Diakiese: 20 sig / 2 TD ·
Alvarez: 42 sig / 0 TD
Marc Diakiese
Joel Alvarez
23
Sig strikes landed
37
55
Sig strikes attempted
75
38
Total strikes landed
51
1.7
Takedowns landed
0.7
3.2
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
172s
Control time
79s
Method
Decision
34%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
35%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Marc Diakiese
"Bonecrusher"
17-8
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
13 fights · 7-6
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. H…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. As…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Da…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. R…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs.…
—
Blue corner
L1
Joel Alvarez
"El Fenomeno"
23-5
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. R…
—
W
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs.…
—