Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Tom Aspinall
Marcin Tybura
59%
41%
Why
78"
Reach
78"
30
Age
Δ 7y
38
15-4
Career record
Δ 7 pp
28-11
L1
Current streak
W2
6
UFC fights in our DB
17
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Aspinall: 13 sig / 0 TD ·
Tybura: 4 sig / 0 TD
Tom Aspinall
Marcin Tybura
29
Sig strikes landed
24
55
Sig strikes attempted
36
37
Total strikes landed
44
0.3
Takedowns landed
1.2
0.5
Takedowns attempted
3.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
96s
Control time
180s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Tom Aspinall
15-4
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
77"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
6 fights · 5-1
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. As…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Asp…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ti…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Le…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. San…
—
Blue corner
W2
Marcin Tybura
"Tybur"
28-11
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
17 fights · 11-6
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spiv…
—
W
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards
—
L
UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. N…
—