Main
Lightweight
Damir Ismagulov vs Grant Dawson
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Magomedov
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Damir Ismagulov
Grant Dawson
46%
54%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
32
Age
Δ 3y
29
24-4
Career record
Δ 0 pp
25-3-1
L1
Current streak
W2
6
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Ismagulov: 13 sig / 0 TD ·
Dawson: 30 sig / 3 TD
Damir Ismagulov
Grant Dawson
42
Sig strikes landed
53
108
Sig strikes attempted
121
68
Total strikes landed
86
1.3
Takedowns landed
3.0
3.2
Takedowns attempted
9.2
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
124s
Control time
351s
Method
Decision
63%
KO/TKO
20%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Damir Ismagulov
"Qazaq"
24-4
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
6 fights · 5-1
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Emm…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbr…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Zh…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
—
Blue corner
W2
Grant Dawson
"KGD"
25-3-1
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Switch
Age
29
In our database
8 fights · 7-0
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera
—
D
UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vett…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ho…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs.…
—