Back to UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Magomedov
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Ismael Bonfim vs Benoit Saint Denis

UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Magomedov ·Meta Apex
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Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Ismael Bonfim
Benoit Saint Denis
55% 45%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
73"
28
Age
28
21-6
Career record
Δ 8 pp
18-3
W1
Current streak
W2
1
UFC fights in our DB
3

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Bonfim: 14 sig / 0 TD · Saint Denis: 13 sig / 2 TD
Ismael Bonfim
Benoit Saint Denis
34
Sig strikes landed
33
66
Sig strikes attempted
75
41
Total strikes landed
44
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.5
2.7
Takedowns attempted
4.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
80s
Control time
167s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
18%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Ismael Bonfim

"Marreta"
21-6
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill
—
Blue corner
W2

Benoit Saint Denis

"God of War"
18-3 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database 3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Tuiva…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Roz…
—
L UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira
—