Main
Women's Flyweight
Ariane da Silva vs Melissa Gatto
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Magomedov
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Ariane da Silva
Melissa Gatto
50%
50%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 2"
69"
29
Age
Δ 2y
27
18-11
Career record
Δ 2 pp
9-4-2
W1
Current streak
L1
9
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
da Silva: 66 sig / 1 TD ·
Gatto: 85 sig / 0 TD
Ariane da Silva
Melissa Gatto
44
Sig strikes landed
46
107
Sig strikes attempted
105
64
Total strikes landed
73
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.4
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
144s
Control time
120s
Method
Decision
54%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Ariane da Silva
"Queen of Violence"
18-11
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
9 fights · 4-5
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalis…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Cruz
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
L
UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez
—
Blue corner
L1
Melissa Gatto
9-4-2
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dauk…
—
W
UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane
—