Back to UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Topuria
Prelims1 Flyweight

Zhalgas Zhumagulov vs Joshua Van

UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Topuria ·Vystar Veterans Memorial Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Zhalgas Zhumagulov
Joshua Van
18% 82%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 2"
65"
35
Age
Δ 13y
22
L3
Current streak
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6
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Zhumagulov: 103 sig / 1 TD · Van: 120 sig / 0 TD
Zhalgas Zhumagulov
Joshua Van
50
Sig strikes landed
53
106
Sig strikes attempted
113
59
Total strikes landed
64
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.0
3.0
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.10
Knockdowns
0.50
128s
Control time
148s
Method
Decision
52%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
21%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L3

Zhalgas Zhumagulov

14-10
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
67"
Stance
Switch
Age
35
In our database 6 fights · 1-5
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. …
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L UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Roz…
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L UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo
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W UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3
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L UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor
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Blue corner

Joshua Van

"The Fearless"
0-0
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
22