Back to UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Topuria
Prelims1 Lightweight

Mateusz Rebecki vs Loik Radzhabov

UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Topuria ·Vystar Veterans Memorial Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Mateusz Rebecki
Loik Radzhabov
70% 30%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 3"
69"
31
Age
Δ 2y
33
21-5
Career record
Δ 8 pp
19-6-1
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Rebecki: 54 sig / 1 TD · Radzhabov: 19 sig / 0 TD
Mateusz Rebecki
Loik Radzhabov
44
Sig strikes landed
46
105
Sig strikes attempted
118
68
Total strikes landed
68
1.5
Takedowns landed
2.7
4.6
Takedowns attempted
9.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.00
164s
Control time
151s
Method
Decision
73%
KO/TKO
10%
Submission
17%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Mateusz Rebecki

21-5
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
66"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs.…
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Blue corner
W1

Loik Radzhabov

"The Tajik Tank"
19-6-1
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane
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