Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Pat Sabatini
Lucas Almeida
65%
35%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 1"
71"
33
Age
Δ 0y
32
22-6
Career record
Δ 2 pp
16-5
L1
Current streak
W1
5
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Sabatini: 27 sig / 2 TD ·
Almeida: 2 sig / 0 TD
Pat Sabatini
Lucas Almeida
36
Sig strikes landed
29
70
Sig strikes attempted
59
59
Total strikes landed
50
2.3
Takedowns landed
0.5
7.0
Takedowns attempted
0.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
228s
Control time
61s
Method
Decision
37%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
25%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Pat Sabatini
22-6
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Muha…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Tate
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Ch…
—
W
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2
—
Blue corner
W1
Lucas Almeida
16-5
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Roz…
—