Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Manuel Torres
Nikolas Motta
75%
25%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 3"
70"
28
Age
Δ 2y
30
18-3
Career record
Δ 13 pp
16-6
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Torres: 13 sig / 0 TD ·
Motta: 7 sig / 0 TD
Manuel Torres
Nikolas Motta
44
Sig strikes landed
25
86
Sig strikes attempted
59
49
Total strikes landed
24
0.3
Takedowns landed
0.4
0.9
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.50
Knockdowns
0.20
51s
Control time
40s
Method
Decision
22%
KO/TKO
63%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Manuel Torres
"El Loco"
18-3
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Switch
Age
28
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
—
Blue corner
W1
Nikolas Motta
"Iron"
16-6
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Hill
—