Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Arman Tsarukyan
Joaquim Silva
91%
9%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 4"
69"
27
Age
Δ 8y
34
24-3
Career record
Δ 17 pp
15-6
W1
Current streak
W1
8
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Tsarukyan: 80 sig / 4 TD ·
Silva: 23 sig / 0 TD
Arman Tsarukyan
Joaquim Silva
55
Sig strikes landed
31
113
Sig strikes attempted
80
86
Total strikes landed
42
2.4
Takedowns landed
0.3
5.4
Takedowns attempted
0.9
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
266s
Control time
39s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Arman Tsarukyan
"Ahalkalakets"
24-3
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
8 fights · 6-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann
—
W
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor
—
Blue corner
W1
Joaquim Silva
"Netto BJJ"
15-6
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database
8 fights · 5-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Jung vs. Ige
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Iaquin…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Bru…
—