Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jim Miller
Jesse Butler
75%
25%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 2"
73"
40
Age
Δ 9y
31
L1
Current streak
—
36
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Miller: 3 sig / 0 TD ·
Butler: 1 sig / 0 TD
Jim Miller
Jesse Butler
18
Sig strikes landed
48
38
Sig strikes attempted
76
34
Total strikes landed
48
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.5
Takedowns attempted
0.5
0.50
Knockdowns
0.20
128s
Control time
81s
Method
Decision
19%
KO/TKO
56%
Submission
25%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Jim Miller
"A-10"
39-20
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
40
In our database
36 fights · 20-15
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Bl…
—
W
UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Hill
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Ladd vs. Dumont
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Ho…
—
Blue corner
Jesse Butler
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31