Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Alex Caceres
Daniel Pineda
52%
48%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 4"
69"
35
Age
Δ 3y
38
22-15
Career record
Δ 4 pp
29-17
W1
Current streak
W1
27
UFC fights in our DB
11
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Caceres: 60 sig / 1 TD ·
Pineda: 27 sig / 3 TD
Alex Caceres
Daniel Pineda
49
Sig strikes landed
26
91
Sig strikes attempted
59
62
Total strikes landed
38
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.3
0.8
Takedowns attempted
3.5
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
74s
Control time
149s
Method
Decision
37%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
31%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Alex Caceres
"Bruce Leeroy"
22-15
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
35
In our database
27 fights · 15-11
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ank…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vett…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Rakic
—
Blue corner
W1
Daniel Pineda
"The Pit"
29-17
(3 NC)
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
11 fights · 5-5
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandh…
—
L
UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno
—
W
UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3
—
L
UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonn…
—