Prelims1
Bantamweight
John Castaneda vs Muin Gafurov
UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs. Albazi
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
John Castaneda
Muin Gafurov
50%
50%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 3"
68"
32
Age
Δ 4y
27
L1
Current streak
—
4
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Castaneda: 40 sig / 3 TD ·
Gafurov: 61 sig / 0 TD
John Castaneda
Muin Gafurov
53
Sig strikes landed
46
105
Sig strikes attempted
106
69
Total strikes landed
58
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.6
Takedowns attempted
2.8
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
89s
Control time
112s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
John Castaneda
"Sexi Mexi"
21-9-1
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
32
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
L
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Le…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
Blue corner
Muin Gafurov
"Tajik"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27