Prelims1
Heavyweight
Andrei Arlovski vs Don'Tale Mayes
UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs. Albazi
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Andrei Arlovski
Don'Tale Mayes
51%
49%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 4"
81"
44
Age
Δ 13y
31
34-25
Career record
Δ 5 pp
11-10
L1
Current streak
L1
25
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Arlovski: 24 sig / 0 TD ·
Mayes: 25 sig / 0 TD
Andrei Arlovski
Don'Tale Mayes
43
Sig strikes landed
40
85
Sig strikes attempted
105
64
Total strikes landed
55
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.6
1.5
Takedowns attempted
3.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
98s
Control time
134s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
43%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Andrei Arlovski
"The Pitbull"
34-25
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
44
In our database
25 fights · 13-11
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. All…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera
—
W
UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Ladd vs. Dumont
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
Blue corner
L1
Don'Tale Mayes
"Lord Kong"
11-10
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
78"
Reach
81"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
6 fights · 2-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Muniz vs. Allen
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dauk…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Dos…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ha…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Askren
—