Main
Welterweight
Abubakar Nurmagomedov vs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos
UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs. Albazi
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Abubakar Nurmagomedov
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos
58%
42%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 1"
73"
34
Age
Δ 3y
36
18-4-1
Career record
Δ 8 pp
26-10-1
W2
Current streak
W1
3
UFC fights in our DB
12
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Nurmagomedov: 29 sig / 1 TD ·
Zaleski dos Santos: 42 sig / 0 TD
Abubakar Nurmagomedov
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos
51
Sig strikes landed
57
104
Sig strikes attempted
119
68
Total strikes landed
74
1.9
Takedowns landed
0.2
6.2
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
211s
Control time
79s
Method
Decision
76%
KO/TKO
16%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Abubakar Nurmagomedov
18-4-1
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev
—
W
UFC 260: Miocic vs. Ngannou
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Zabit vs. Katt…
—
Blue corner
W1
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos
"Capoeira"
26-10-1
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
12 fights · 9-3
Last 5
W
UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira
—
L
UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Olivei…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Zh…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos …
—