Prelims1
Women's Flyweight
Natalia Silva vs Victoria Leonardo
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Natalia Silva
Victoria Leonardo
90%
10%
Why
65"
Reach
Δ 1"
64"
26
Age
Δ 7y
33
21-5-1
Career record
Δ 19 pp
10-7
W2
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Silva: 20 sig / 0 TD ·
Leonardo: 7 sig / 0 TD
Natalia Silva
Victoria Leonardo
55
Sig strikes landed
26
96
Sig strikes attempted
87
90
Total strikes landed
49
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.6
Takedowns attempted
4.1
0.50
Knockdowns
-0.20
152s
Control time
114s
Method
Decision
60%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Natalia Silva
21-5-1
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
65"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
26
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Emm…
—
Blue corner
W1
Victoria Leonardo
"Fury"
10-7
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. As…
—
L
UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Mag…
—