Prelims1
Women's Strawweight
Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs Vanessa Demopoulos
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Karolina Kowalkiewicz
Vanessa Demopoulos
58%
42%
Why
64"
Reach
Δ 4"
60"
38
Age
Δ 3y
35
17-10
Career record
Δ 3 pp
12-8
W2
Current streak
W3
14
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Kowalkiewicz: 139 sig / 0 TD ·
Demopoulos: 68 sig / 0 TD
Karolina Kowalkiewicz
Vanessa Demopoulos
74
Sig strikes landed
65
163
Sig strikes attempted
153
97
Total strikes landed
89
0.4
Takedowns landed
1.2
1.5
Takedowns attempted
4.1
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
115s
Control time
182s
Method
Decision
81%
KO/TKO
11%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Karolina Kowalkiewicz
17-10
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
14 fights · 7-7
Last 5
W
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Roz…
—
L
UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Hoo…
—
L
UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes
—
Blue corner
W3
Vanessa Demopoulos
"Lil Monster"
12-8
Career record
Height
62"
Reach
60"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. …
—
W
UFC 270: Ngannou vs. Gane
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Ch…
—