Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Diego Ferreira
Michael Johnson
72%
28%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 0"
74"
38
Age
Δ 1y
37
19-8
Career record
Δ 14 pp
26-20
L3
Current streak
W1
13
UFC fights in our DB
27
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Ferreira: 30 sig / 0 TD ·
Johnson: 32 sig / 0 TD
Diego Ferreira
Michael Johnson
51
Sig strikes landed
63
135
Sig strikes attempted
129
59
Total strikes landed
73
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.4
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.50
78s
Control time
66s
Method
Decision
64%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L3
Diego Ferreira
19-8
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
13 fights · 8-5
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dauk…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Vo…
—
W
UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy
—
W
UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier
—
Blue corner
W1
Michael Johnson
"The Menace"
26-20
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
37
In our database
27 fights · 13-14
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. H…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Vo…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Teix…
—