Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Andre Fialho
Joaquin Buckley
43%
57%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
76"
29
Age
29
16-9
Career record
Δ 6 pp
21-9
L2
Current streak
L2
5
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Fialho: 22 sig / 0 TD ·
Buckley: 26 sig / 2 TD
Andre Fialho
Joaquin Buckley
39
Sig strikes landed
40
97
Sig strikes attempted
99
40
Total strikes landed
53
0.3
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.4
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.50
27s
Control time
71s
Method
Decision
33%
KO/TKO
57%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Andre Fialho
16-9
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
5 fights · 2-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. …
—
L
UFC 275: Teixeira vs. Prochazka
—
W
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Muha…
—
L
UFC 270: Ngannou vs. Gane
—
Blue corner
L2
Joaquin Buckley
"New Mansa"
21-9
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
9 fights · 5-4
Last 5
L
UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Tuiva…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Emm…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Hill
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann
—