Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Ilir Latifi
Rodrigo Nascimento
36%
64%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 6"
80"
41
Age
Δ 10y
30
18-9
Career record
Δ 13 pp
12-3
W2
Current streak
W1
15
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Latifi: 49 sig / 2 TD ·
Nascimento: 68 sig / 0 TD
Ilir Latifi
Rodrigo Nascimento
20
Sig strikes landed
26
26
Sig strikes attempted
55
37
Total strikes landed
43
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.9
3.0
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
160s
Control time
137s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Ilir Latifi
"The Sledgehammer"
18-9
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
41
In our database
15 fights · 9-6
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
L
UFC 247: Jones vs. Reyes
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Shevchenko vs.…
—
L
UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2
—
Blue corner
W1
Rodrigo Nascimento
"Ze Colmeia"
12-3
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
4 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. San…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ha…
—