Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
David Dvorak
Steve Erceg
60%
40%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 0"
68"
31
Age
Δ 3y
28
L2
Current streak
—
5
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Dvorak: 53 sig / 1 TD ·
Erceg: 54 sig / 3 TD
David Dvorak
Steve Erceg
42
Sig strikes landed
39
91
Sig strikes attempted
94
57
Total strikes landed
52
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.0
3.2
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
146s
Control time
117s
Method
Decision
61%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
David Dvorak
"Undertaker"
20-7
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Da…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbr…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Olivei…
—
Blue corner
Steve Erceg
"Astroboy"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28