Prelims2
Women's Strawweight
Diana Belbita vs Maria Oliveira
UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana
·Rogers Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Diana Belbita
Maria Oliveira
50%
50%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 1"
69"
27
Age
Δ 0y
26
15-11
Career record
Δ 4 pp
13-8
L1
Current streak
L1
4
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Belbita: 106 sig / 1 TD ·
Oliveira: 64 sig / 2 TD
Diana Belbita
Maria Oliveira
81
Sig strikes landed
76
181
Sig strikes attempted
182
99
Total strikes landed
86
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.0
1.6
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
79s
Control time
97s
Method
Decision
86%
KO/TKO
8%
Submission
6%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Diana Belbita
"The Warrior Princess"
15-11
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
4 fights · 1-3
Last 4
L
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Hill
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Ige
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Weid…
—
Blue corner
L1
Maria Oliveira
"Spider-Girl"
13-8
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Emm…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vett…
—