Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Kyle Nelson
Blake Bilder
67%
33%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 2"
68"
32
Age
Δ 1y
33
17-7-2
Career record
Δ 10 pp
9-2-1
D1
Current streak
W1
6
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Nelson: 59 sig / 0 TD ·
Bilder: 45 sig / 0 TD
Kyle Nelson
Blake Bilder
50
Sig strikes landed
41
98
Sig strikes attempted
86
76
Total strikes landed
74
1.4
Takedowns landed
1.2
4.0
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.00
Knockdowns
0.30
212s
Control time
122s
Method
Decision
80%
KO/TKO
8%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
D1
Kyle Nelson
"The Monster"
17-7-2
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
32
In our database
6 fights · 1-4
Last 5
D
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spiv…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. As…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. H…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. C…
—
Blue corner
W1
Blake Bilder
"El Animal"
9-2-1
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Switch
Age
33
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanov…
—