Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Mike Malott
Adam Fugitt
77%
23%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 4"
77"
32
Age
Δ 3y
34
15-2-1
Career record
Δ 19 pp
11-6
W2
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Malott: 19 sig / 2 TD ·
Fugitt: 9 sig / 0 TD
Mike Malott
Adam Fugitt
25
Sig strikes landed
14
50
Sig strikes attempted
35
41
Total strikes landed
20
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.3
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.00
132s
Control time
89s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
20%
Submission
41%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Mike Malott
"Proper"
15-2-1
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Muniz vs. Allen
—
W
UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Ko…
—
Blue corner
W1
Adam Fugitt
11-6
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spiv…
—
L
UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2
—