Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Charles Oliveira
Beneil Dariush
80%
20%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
34
Age
Δ 0y
34
37-12
Career record
Δ 3 pp
24-8-1
L1
Current streak
W8
31
UFC fights in our DB
21
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Oliveira: 26 sig / 0 TD ·
Dariush: 12 sig / 0 TD
Charles Oliveira
Beneil Dariush
27
Sig strikes landed
29
49
Sig strikes attempted
55
39
Total strikes landed
53
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.2
1.7
Takedowns attempted
3.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
93s
Control time
201s
Method
Decision
18%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
40%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Charles Oliveira
"Do Bronxs"
37-12
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
31 fights · 21-9
Last 5
L
UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev
—
W
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje
—
W
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier
—
W
UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler
—
W
UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno
—
Blue corner
W8
Beneil Dariush
24-8-1
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database
21 fights · 16-4
Last 5
W
UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev
—
W
UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Vo…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Olei…
—
W
UFC 248: Adesanya vs. Romero
—