Back to UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana
🏆 Title fight Main Women's Bantamweight

Amanda Nunes vs Irene Aldana

UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana ·Rogers Arena

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Amanda Nunes
Irene Aldana
84% 16%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 0"
68"
35
Age
Δ 0y
35
24-5
Career record
Δ 16 pp
16-8
W1
Current streak
W2
17
UFC fights in our DB
11

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Nunes: 142 sig / 6 TD · Aldana: 41 sig / 0 TD
Amanda Nunes
Irene Aldana
102
Sig strikes landed
57
196
Sig strikes attempted
144
122
Total strikes landed
70
2.1
Takedowns landed
0.1
6.3
Takedowns attempted
0.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
250s
Control time
25s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
13%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Amanda Nunes

"The Lioness"
24-5
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database 17 fights · 15-2
Last 5
W UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2
L UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier
W UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya
W UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer
W UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington
Blue corner
W2

Irene Aldana

16-8
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database 11 fights · 7-4
Last 5
W UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson
W UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3
L UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Aldana
W UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington
W UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …