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Main Welterweight

Tim Means vs Alex Morono

UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida ·Spectrum Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Tim Means
Alex Morono
62% 38%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 3"
72"
39
Age
Δ 6y
33
33-18-1
Career record
Δ 0 pp
24-14
L2
Current streak
L1
26
UFC fights in our DB
17

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Means: 40 sig / 2 TD · Morono: 33 sig / 0 TD
Tim Means
Alex Morono
69
Sig strikes landed
70
145
Sig strikes attempted
159
79
Total strikes landed
82
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.1
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
72s
Control time
99s
Method
Decision
67%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
9%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L2

Tim Means

"The Dirty Bird"
33-18-1 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
39
In our database 26 fights · 14-11
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. All…
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L UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Emm…
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W UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov
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W UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez
—
W UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Olei…
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Blue corner
L1

Alex Morono

"The Great White"
24-14 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database 17 fights · 11-5
Last 5
L UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev
—
W UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2
—
W UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo
—
W UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ti…
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W UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
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