Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Josh Quinlan
Trey Waters
44%
56%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 5"
77"
30
Age
Δ 2y
28
W1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Quinlan: 50 sig / 1 TD ·
Waters: 104 sig / 1 TD
Josh Quinlan
Trey Waters
23
Sig strikes landed
29
66
Sig strikes attempted
67
39
Total strikes landed
46
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.9
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
89s
Control time
126s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Josh Quinlan
"Bushido"
7-3
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Cruz
—
Blue corner
Trey Waters
"The Truth"
0-0
Career record
Height
77"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28