Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Martin Buday
Jake Collier
84%
16%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 2"
78"
32
Age
Δ 3y
34
17-2
Career record
Δ 35 pp
13-11
W2
Current streak
L2
2
UFC fights in our DB
12
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Buday: 98 sig / 0 TD ·
Collier: 94 sig / 0 TD
Martin Buday
Jake Collier
71
Sig strikes landed
58
145
Sig strikes attempted
132
91
Total strikes landed
64
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.1
4.7
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
193s
Control time
41s
Method
Decision
73%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
6%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Martin Buday
"Badys"
17-2
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Cruz
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Muha…
—
Blue corner
L2
Jake Collier
"The Prototype"
13-11
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
12 fights · 5-7
Last 5
L
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Chi…
—
L
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—