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Main Bantamweight

Shuya Kamikubo vs Baergeng Jieleyisi

Road to UFC 2.3 + 2.4 ·UFC Performance Institute Shanghai
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Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Shuya Kamikubo
Baergeng Jieleyisi
52% 48%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 3"
71"
30
Age
Δ 3y
28

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Kamikubo: 58 sig / 0 TD · Jieleyisi: 38 sig / 0 TD
Shuya Kamikubo
Baergeng Jieleyisi
34
Sig strikes landed
40
68
Sig strikes attempted
84
53
Total strikes landed
55
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.9
3.0
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
142s
Control time
121s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
19%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Shuya Kamikubo

"Stealth"
0-0
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
68"
Stance
Switch
Age
30
Blue corner

Baergeng Jieleyisi

0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28