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SeongChan Hong vs Rongzhu

Road to UFC 2.3 + 2.4 ·UFC Performance Institute Shanghai
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
SeongChan Hong
Rongzhu
15% 85%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
34
Age
Δ 10y
23

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Hong: 15 sig / 0 TD · Rongzhu: 20 sig / 0 TD
SeongChan Hong
Rongzhu
28
Sig strikes landed
42
65
Sig strikes attempted
84
44
Total strikes landed
59
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.4
2.3
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.50
100s
Control time
166s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
16%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

SeongChan Hong

"Honey Badger"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
Blue corner

Rongzhu

0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23