Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Movsar Evloev
Diego Lopes
60%
40%
Why
72"
Reach
72"
29
Age
Δ 1y
28
W6
Current streak
—
6
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Evloev: 88 sig / 4 TD ·
Lopes: 37 sig / 0 TD
Movsar Evloev
Diego Lopes
56
Sig strikes landed
40
108
Sig strikes attempted
100
113
Total strikes landed
54
3.7
Takedowns landed
0.5
6.7
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
367s
Control time
66s
Method
Decision
55%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W6
Movsar Evloev
21-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
6 fights · 6-0
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Roz…
—
W
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2
—
W
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Askren
—
Blue corner
Diego Lopes
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28