Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Kron Gracie
Charles Jourdain
31%
69%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 1"
69"
35
Age
Δ 7y
27
5-4
Career record
Δ 9 pp
18-9-1
L1
Current streak
L2
2
UFC fights in our DB
10
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Gracie: 32 sig / 0 TD ·
Jourdain: 80 sig / 0 TD
Kron Gracie
Charles Jourdain
49
Sig strikes landed
71
121
Sig strikes attempted
140
74
Total strikes landed
93
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.5
2.9
Takedowns attempted
0.6
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
68s
Control time
104s
Method
Decision
56%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Kron Gracie
5-4
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
35
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Wat…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Ve…
—
Blue corner
L2
Charles Jourdain
"Air"
18-9-1
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Switch
Age
27
In our database
10 fights · 4-5
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Tuiva…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rod…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andr…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dauk…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ti…
—