Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Belal Muhammad
Gilbert Burns
78%
22%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 1"
71"
35
Age
Δ 2y
37
25-5
Career record
Δ 14 pp
23-10
W8
Current streak
W2
17
UFC fights in our DB
20
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Muhammad: 132 sig / 0 TD ·
Burns: 81 sig / 0 TD
Belal Muhammad
Gilbert Burns
64
Sig strikes landed
53
141
Sig strikes attempted
112
98
Total strikes landed
66
1.7
Takedowns landed
1.1
4.7
Takedowns attempted
4.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
216s
Control time
95s
Method
Decision
67%
KO/TKO
23%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W8
Belal Muhammad
"Remember the Name"
25-5
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
17 fights · 13-3
Last 5
W
UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Muha…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dauk…
—
W
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2
—
W
UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns
—
Blue corner
W2
Gilbert Burns
"Durinho"
23-10
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
20 fights · 15-5
Last 5
W
UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2
—
W
UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill
—
L
UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Ko…
—
W
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3
—
L
UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns
—