Back to UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo
🏆 Title fight Main Bantamweight

Aljamain Sterling vs Henry Cejudo

UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo ·Prudential Center

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Aljamain Sterling
Henry Cejudo
87% 13%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 7"
64"
34
Age
Δ 2y
36
27-5
Career record
Δ 10 pp
17-6
W8
Current streak
W6
17
UFC fights in our DB
12

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 5
Sterling: 135 sig / 4 TD · Cejudo: 99 sig / 3 TD
Aljamain Sterling
Henry Cejudo
92
Sig strikes landed
57
157
Sig strikes attempted
135
131
Total strikes landed
73
1.8
Takedowns landed
1.0
7.2
Takedowns attempted
4.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
203s
Control time
113s
Method
Decision
63%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
12%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W8

Aljamain Sterling

"Funk Master"
27-5
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database 17 fights · 14-3
Last 5
W UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev
W UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Ko…
W UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya
W UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer
W UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes
Blue corner
W6

Henry Cejudo

"Triple C"
17-6
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database 12 fights · 10-2
Last 5
W UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
W UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes
W UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dil…
W UFC 227: Dillashaw vs. Garbrand…
W UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2