Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Braxton Smith
Parker Porter
56%
44%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 3"
75"
33
Age
Δ 5y
38
—
Current streak
L2
0
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Smith: 14 sig / 0 TD ·
Porter: 25 sig / 0 TD
Braxton Smith
Parker Porter
40
Sig strikes landed
46
83
Sig strikes attempted
90
50
Total strikes landed
60
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.0
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
89s
Control time
146s
Method
Decision
68%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
6%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Braxton Smith
"The Beautiful Monster"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
Blue corner
L2
Parker Porter
14-10
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
6 fights · 3-3
Last 5
L
UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanov…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Hill
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Clark
—