Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Phil Hawes
Ikram Aliskerov
29%
71%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 2"
76"
34
Age
Δ 4y
30
L1
Current streak
—
6
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Hawes: 17 sig / 0 TD ·
Aliskerov: 20 sig / 0 TD
Phil Hawes
Ikram Aliskerov
39
Sig strikes landed
36
76
Sig strikes attempted
75
54
Total strikes landed
50
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.2
3.3
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
138s
Control time
126s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Phil Hawes
"No Hype"
12-7
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. All…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Emm…
—
L
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Le…
—
Blue corner
Ikram Aliskerov
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30