Prelims2
Middleweight
Joseph Holmes vs Claudio Ribeiro
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo
·Prudential Center
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Joseph Holmes
Claudio Ribeiro
60%
40%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 3"
77"
28
Age
Δ 3y
31
8-5
Career record
Δ 3 pp
11-6
L1
Current streak
L1
3
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Holmes: 17 sig / 1 TD ·
Ribeiro: 37 sig / 1 TD
Joseph Holmes
Claudio Ribeiro
24
Sig strikes landed
24
48
Sig strikes attempted
33
42
Total strikes landed
36
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.2
2.2
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
113s
Control time
100s
Method
Decision
34%
KO/TKO
45%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Joseph Holmes
"Uglyman Joe"
8-5
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. All…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Chi…
—
Blue corner
L1
Claudio Ribeiro
11-6
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs.…
—