Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Drew Dober
Matt Frevola
74%
26%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 1"
71"
34
Age
Δ 2y
33
30-15
Career record
Δ 4 pp
12-6-1
W3
Current streak
W2
20
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Dober: 20 sig / 0 TD ·
Frevola: 35 sig / 0 TD
Drew Dober
Matt Frevola
38
Sig strikes landed
37
88
Sig strikes attempted
82
52
Total strikes landed
40
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.5
1.8
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.40
Knockdowns
0.40
118s
Control time
38s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
49%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Drew Dober
30-15
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
35
In our database
20 fights · 12-7
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
W
UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ank…
—
L
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2
—
L
UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya
—
Blue corner
W2
Matt Frevola
"The SteamRolla"
12-6-1
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
8 fights · 4-3
Last 5
W
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira
—
W
UFC 270: Ngannou vs. Gane
—
L
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2
—
L
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Wat…
—