Back to UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez
Prelims2 Light Heavyweight

Vitor Petrino vs Marcin Prachnio

UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez ·T-Mobile Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Vitor Petrino
Marcin Prachnio
82% 18%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 4"
73"
26
Age
Δ 9y
35
15-2
Career record
Δ 22 pp
18-9
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
7

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Petrino: 44 sig / 4 TD · Prachnio: 55 sig / 0 TD
Vitor Petrino
Marcin Prachnio
39
Sig strikes landed
40
85
Sig strikes attempted
80
58
Total strikes landed
55
2.2
Takedowns landed
0.0
4.8
Takedowns attempted
0.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
209s
Control time
39s
Method
Decision
54%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
14%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Vitor Petrino

15-2
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalis…
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Blue corner
W1

Marcin Prachnio

18-9
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database 7 fights · 3-4
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Bl…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andr…
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W UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov
—
W UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor
—
L UFC Fight Night: Munhoz vs. Edg…
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