Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Shannon Ross
Jesus Aguilar
34%
66%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 4"
62"
34
Age
Δ 7y
27
13-10
Career record
Δ 14 pp
12-5
L1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Ross: 2 sig / 0 TD ·
Aguilar: 2 sig / 0 TD
Shannon Ross
Jesus Aguilar
32
Sig strikes landed
35
51
Sig strikes attempted
59
59
Total strikes landed
58
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.1
3.3
Takedowns attempted
3.2
0.40
Knockdowns
0.50
177s
Control time
478s
Method
Decision
30%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
27%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Shannon Ross
"The Turkish Delight"
13-10
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Switch
Age
34
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanov…
—
Blue corner
L1
Jesus Aguilar
12-5
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
63"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spiv…
—