Back to UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez
Prelims2 Lightweight

Kamuela Kirk vs Esteban Ribovics

UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez ·T-Mobile Arena
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Kamuela Kirk
Esteban Ribovics
36% 64%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 6"
69"
29
Age
Δ 2y
27
12-7
Career record
Δ 16 pp
15-4
L1
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Kirk: 56 sig / 3 TD · Ribovics: 115 sig / 2 TD
Kamuela Kirk
Esteban Ribovics
47
Sig strikes landed
43
102
Sig strikes attempted
86
53
Total strikes landed
57
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.8
3.4
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
96s
Control time
81s
Method
Decision
65%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
8%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Kamuela Kirk

"The Jawaiian"
12-7
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
75"
Stance
Switch
Age
29
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ank…
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W UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
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Blue corner
L1

Esteban Ribovics

"El Gringo"
15-4
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane
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