Prelims1
Welterweight
Robbie Lawler vs Niko Price
UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez
·T-Mobile Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Robbie Lawler
Niko Price
64%
36%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
76"
41
Age
Δ 8y
34
30-17
Career record
Δ 7 pp
16-12
L1
Current streak
L1
17
UFC fights in our DB
15
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Lawler: 8 sig / 0 TD ·
Price: 2 sig / 0 TD
Robbie Lawler
Niko Price
70
Sig strikes landed
78
131
Sig strikes attempted
177
84
Total strikes landed
76
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.2
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
86s
Control time
81s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
50%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Robbie Lawler
"Ruthless"
30-17
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
41
In our database
17 fights · 10-7
Last 5
L
UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier
—
W
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Rakic
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
—
L
UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith
—
Blue corner
L1
Niko Price
"The Hybrid"
16-12
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
15 fights · 7-6
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. H…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Wal…
—
L
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3
—
L
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Wat…
—