🏆 Title fight
Main
Flyweight
Brandon Moreno vs Alexandre Pantoja
UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez
·T-Mobile Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Brandon Moreno
Alexandre Pantoja
42%
58%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
68"
30
Age
Δ 4y
33
24-10-2
Career record
Δ 17 pp
31-6
W2
Current streak
W3
14
UFC fights in our DB
12
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 5
Moreno: 147 sig / 2 TD ·
Pantoja: 129 sig / 6 TD
Brandon Moreno
Alexandre Pantoja
69
Sig strikes landed
61
155
Sig strikes attempted
133
84
Total strikes landed
72
1.4
Takedowns landed
1.0
3.7
Takedowns attempted
3.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
149s
Control time
109s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
24%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Brandon Moreno
"The Assassin Baby"
24-10-2
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
14 fights · 9-3
Last 5
W
UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill
—
W
UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2
—
L
UFC 270: Ngannou vs. Gane
—
W
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2
—
D
UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno
—
Blue corner
W3
Alexandre Pantoja
"The Cannibal"
31-6
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
12 fights · 9-3
Last 5
W
UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Vo…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs. The …
—